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As the skyline of Venezuela lit up amidst a assault, observers witnessed the morbid symptoms of a waning empire. That might sound counterintuitive. Ultimately, the act of kidnapping a sovereign leader and declaring plans to run a country might appear as hubris—a dominant force intoxicated by its own strength.

But, a key trait of this stance, if it can be called that, is frankness. Earlier administrations veiled overt self-interest in the discourse of “freedom” and “civil liberties”. The current doctrine dispenses with the costume. In a recent remark, the logic behind an energy seizure was stated plainly.

This viewpoint is formalized in a recently published policy paper. The paper concedes something long ignored in policy debates: that an era of uncontested international dominance is finished. It proclaims with scarcely hidden scorn that the period of supporting the entire world order are finished. These words serve as an direct eulogy for a former standing.

“After years of neglect, a renewed focus of a historic principle will reestablish dominance in the regional sphere.”

That principle, formulated in the nineteenth century, claimed to block Old World imperialism. Historically, it laid the foundations for regional domination over a continental sphere.

Instability in the region facilitated by external powers is not novel. Numerous families took in displaced persons fleeing rightwing dictatorships that were installed after socialist governments were overthrown in supported upheavals. The reasoning at the time was explicit: preventing a state from going a certain direction due to the choices of its people. Comparable rationale supported backing repressive states across the region.

A Shifting Hemisphere

However in the past generation, that control has been challenged. A wave of left-leaning administrations, pioneered by prominent presidents, sought to establish greater sovereign agency. Most importantly, a key international adversary—the Asian giant—has expanded its influence across the landmass. Mutual economic exchange between China and Latin America exploded dramatically over a few decades. This nation is now the region's second largest commercial ally, trailing only one other. At the end of a cold war, it did not even place in the top 10.

The current intervention against Venezuela is only the initial salvo in an bid to reverse all of these changes.

The Transformation of a Regime

The experience of a previous administration led numerous to conclude that the strongman was full of hot air. At that time, an arrangement was reached with the establishment. The tacit agreement was simple: enact tax cuts and deregulation, and public venting would be tolerated. The current incarnation represents a full-fat nationalist administration.

If threats are issued at the freely chosen heads of state of neighboring countries—heed the warning. When statements are made about sovereign states being “ready to fall,” pay attention. And when assertions are made about needing a vast sovereign land—recognize the seriousness. The intention to acquire millions square kilometers of another nation's land appears real.

The Consequences of Acquisition

Should—once such a seizure occurs, what happens next? The tepid European response to a brazenly illegal attack would not go unnoticed. Yet a takeover of fellow state soil would almost certainly spell the collapse of a defensive pact, founded on the doctrine of mutual protection. Territory would be taken no less openly than contemporary military invasions. No matter the muted noises emerged from allied nations, the transatlantic partnership would be finished.

Following the fall of a major rival, policymakers convinced themselves they were militarily invincible and that their economic model represented the endpoint of social progress. That overconfidence led directly to failure in overseas engagements and a economic meltdown. Assurances of endless prosperity gave way to a succession of crises. The resulting popular discontent gave rise to a nationalist response. And the “Country First” answer to national weakening is to relinquish international commitments in favor for a continental sphere of control.

The Homefront Cost

What will that do to the home country? Historical precedent offers cautions. After previous overseas conquests, influential figures founded an opposition group. They argued that the policy of expansionism was antithetical to democracy and encouraged repression—an evil from which the country had stayed clear.

“The warning was that no republic can long endure divided between freedom and domination, and the prediction is that foreign adventures will lead swiftly and surely to despotism at home.”

In the end, economic influence supplanted outright occupation, and democratic institutions—always imperfect—survived.

Which analyst would reject such warnings as hyperbole today? Actions abroad cannot be decoupled from what happens at home. This is the colonial backlash, as described decades ago by a prominent thinker examining how foreign domination came back to the continent in the shape of authoritarianism. The public has already watched a “war on terror” rebound in such a fashion: its rhetoric and framework reused for homefront surveillance. The opposition party are described as “subversive” organizations. National guard troops are deployed into urban centers like {