Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent During Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Government Figures

The average number of per-day killings monthly in the country has dropped by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per recent government statistics. However, security analysts have advised that murder figures could fail to indicate improved national safety.

Notable Drop in Per-Day Averages

There was an average of nearly 55 murders a day in the month of November as opposed to almost 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidency in the previous September. This information was shared by the chief of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we’ve had during these past months is very important,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, explaining that last month the least amount of murders were registered for any single November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Government Strategy

Fierce organized crime rivalries, alongside the administration's heavily military efforts to take on the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in recent years. The rate hit a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure more than 4x higher than that of the United States. Since then, killings have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has attributed her public safety plan for an apparently steeper drop in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the President stated: “We have a strategy, there is tracking of the plan, and there is specific tracking town by town in some cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The main pillars of the President's security plan include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation capabilities.
• Increased coordination between government authorities.

Analyst Caution and Data Limitations

However, public safety experts warned that focusing solely on murder numbers to assess the situation of improved security was flawed. This is notably true in light of the increase in other crimes such as people going missing.

“This would be positive news if this was a drop, but I think we shouldn't just look at the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Alright, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

According to the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the identical period last year. However, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is not reliable for gauging the reality of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the capacity or the inclination to accurately identify and categorize bodies. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly averages of everyday killings was also concerning because it may obscure periods when there were especially spiking levels of killings.

“Employing the daily average renders surges of violence unseen,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

An area where the administration can point to the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for major crimes, per official data. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms profitable,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration

Yet notwithstanding these actions, Mexico continues to be beset by extreme violence, with a number of regions in the grip of cartel-driven conflict. Recently there was a notable killing of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the past year.

A short time after, thousands of young people protested in Mexico City and throughout the nation to express their outrage at graft and drug violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a manner to build a picture of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, socially it’s highly questionable,” Vargas remarked.