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The last time Vladimir Putin visited India four years ago, the global landscape was markedly different. That short trip, curtailed by the pandemic, focused on discussions on strategic and defense cooperation between the two leaders.

Not long after, the large-scale military offensive of its neighbor would turn the Russian leader into a global pariah, significantly restricting his diplomatic travel.

Additionally, that era came before a major change in US-India relations, marked by contentious statements and the introduction of heavy import duties.

"In this context, the importance of Putin's journey to meet Modi cannot be overstated, serving as a signal of enduring ties and a rejection of external pressure," analysts note.

A Critical Juncture for Both Nations

The summit occurs at a crucial time. The Kremlin leader comes after rejecting latest diplomatic initiatives for Ukraine, confident due to reported gains by Russian forces.

"For Russia, the primary importance of this visit is its simple happening," commented a prominent analyst based in Moscow. "It suggests a movement toward something resembling normal international relations."

From Delhi's standpoint, the risks are even higher. The country navigates a challenging international environment, characterized by a semi-isolationist United States, a weakened Russia, and an increasingly powerful China.

This delicate balance was underscored just before the visit, when European ambassadors released a joint opinion piece criticizing Russia's commitment to peace. This prompted a firm response from Indian officials, who labeled it an unacceptable interference.

The Enduring Challenge from the North

The historical partnership dates back to the Soviet period and remains deeply entrenched, with Moscow long being Delhi's primary defense supplier. This relationship was largely tolerated by the West until a change in approach.

Over time, Western nations overlooked India's large-scale buying of cheap energy from Russia. Yet, in the wake of stalled diplomacy, pressure mounted, leading to economic penalties and a significant downturn in transatlantic relations with Delhi.

"In response, India has returned to its traditional posture of maintaining multiple options," noted a foreign policy expert. "It signals to the US that it has alternatives and is waiting to see how the global dynamics settle."

Apart from international politics, India's core motivation with Russia is geography. "Beijing continues to be the primary security challenge to India, and historically, India has depended on Russia as a continental balancer against China," the analyst added.

The deepening Moscow-Beijing axis has caused concern in Delhi, prompting efforts to avoid an unbreakable bond between its northern neighbor and its longtime partner.

This concern has also spurred India's drive to reduce its defense procurement, decreasing its dependence on Russian equipment from about 70% to a reduced portion in recent years.

"Delhi will try to find a middle ground: purchase enough Russian arms to maintain the alliance, but not become so dependent that a sudden cutoff would leave it vulnerable," the analyst concluded.

The Oil Question

Increased economic cooperation is expected to be a key agenda item. President Putin has recently emphasized plans to take cooperation with India to a "qualitatively new level", in spite of Western sanctions.

The matter of energy imports is central. While the Indian government has stated to keep buying Russian oil, recent restrictions have slowed activity from the commercial buyers. At the same time, India has moved to increase imports of American oil and gas.

A Kremlin spokesperson admitted "obstacles" in economic cooperation but said it would continue uninterrupted. The official downplayed the impact of sanctions, claiming they would cause only "insignificant" and "temporary" disruptions and that Russia possesses the "means" to circumvent them.

Limited Leverage on Ukraine

When the two leaders sit down, the issue of Ukraine is expected to be addressed mainly through India's standard call for a peaceful resolution.

"While the Indian leader can speak to all parties, the nation lacks the diplomatic clout to significantly influence the conflict," the analyst said. "Aside from encouraging talks, its capacity to effect change is limited."

In the end, notwithstanding the public displays of camaraderie between the two leaders, the relationship is fundamentally one of "pragmatic strategic interest," driven by cold calculation in a volatile world.