War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a sham, with major political parties banned, numerous figures jailed and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is conducting a staggered election nearly five years after it seized power in a takeover, which sparked massive protests and spiralled into a civil war.

Analysts note the junta, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the costly deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the rights of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been charged for interfering with or criticising the polls under a recently enacted legislation which imposes severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after criticising a film endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, adding that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats urging people to shun the polls.

The army has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own forces. It lost control of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year following relentless airstrikes made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Results are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it difficult to forecast a possible turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while others are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the junta can adjust tactics if the results in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has urged negotiations to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not intended for the international community," a military representative told a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".